SPECIAL ELECTION DAY IN HAWAII – AT 11:51 A.M. ET:  There's a special congressional election in Hawaii today, birthplace (we think) of Barack Obama.  It will fill the seat left vacant by ultra-libby Neil Abercrombie, who's running for governor.  Because of special circumstances, the GOP has a shot:

Republicans may have struck out in their bid to pick up a House seat in Tuesday's special election in southwestern Pennsylvania, which they had hoped would signal they were headed toward wiping out Democrats in November.

But Republicans will get another shot Saturday, in a special election in President Obama's native Hawaii. And their chances are looking good, as Democrats remain divided on who to support.

If Charles Djou wins Saturday against two Democrats who seem to be splitting their party's vote, he will be Hawaii's first Republican congressman in decades.

Obama, who was born in Hawaii, carried the state with 72 percent of the vote in the presidential election just two years ago. But prominent Democrats acknowledge the possibility of losing the seat on Saturday.

"Yeah," Rep. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said simply when asked this week if his organization is writing off the special election.

The party is split on whether to support state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa or former U.S. Rep. Ed Case. And the infighting among Democrats locally and nationally has left the door open for Djou.

"I think the people of Hawaii are learning, just as the American people are learning, that we do not have to follow the marching orders of the old boy network and the establishment," Djou said this week in a TV interview. "This congressional campaign is an opportunity for the voters of Hawaii to say, we own this seat, not the Democratic Party."

COMMENT:  The election is to fill an unexpired term.  Even if Djou wins, he would have to run again in November, presumably against a unified Dem party.  But we can enjoy the moment.

May 22, 2010